Two items of note regarding Electric Vehicles

 

I saw the above vehicle today, as I went to the bank to clarify an issue I had with newly issued credit cards.  And it got me thinking about the future of these vehicles.

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For a long time, I've held that it is unlikely that we will meet the political deadline set by the governors of New York and California to end the sales of internal combustion vehicles.  But I'm not as sure as I once was due to the use of electric vehicles by two people in my circle of acquaintances. (Only one of these people drives a Tesla.  The other drives a Nissan Leaf.)  Although I could make a case for a Tesla being a person's only car, I can't say that yet for any other brand of electric vehicle.

Today, I saw an article noting that Toyota has developed a battery that could get 750 miles on a single charge AND be fully charged in 10 minutes.  Assuming that the cost of manufacturing these batteries could be brought down to a reasonable price point (even Toyota says this technology is not ready for prime time) and that the charging station infrastructure can be fully built out in 12 years, I feel that it might be possible to migrate to a fully electric transportation economy.  These, still, are two gigantic ifs!

The above vehicle is classified as a motorcycle by New York state law.  If you look at the steering control in the top picture, you'll see something resembling handlebars.  I wonder if the driver of this vehicle still has to wear a helmet.  I'm also concerned that entry doors (if any) on this vehicle are removable, and that climate control (both air conditioning and heat) does not exist for this vehicle.  

Years ago, I saw a internal combustion (ICE) commuter vehicle designed for a single driver, whose price point was set at $7,500.  In 2016, I was able to sit inside one of Elio Motors' ICE prototype vehicles. Unfortunately, Elio Motors' ICE product never made it to market - gas prices stayed cheap, and people were able to buy new and used ICE vehicles at a price point which took away the market for Elio's product  Today, Elio is looking to sell an electric vehicle for $15,000.  Elio realizes that any vehicle being sold in this market needs standard safety features found on current model cars, needs appropriate climate control for passenger comfort, as well as other features now found on current model cars.

Would I buy an electric vehicle designed to carry only two people?  I'm not sure any more.  I'd still want a ICE car for long distance travel.  But, if Toyota's technology proves to be practical and affordable in the near future, I'd consider an electric version of a 4-dor sedan.  Yet, if I had the ICE vehicle, I'd consider a 2-person electric commuter vehicle for short trips.  As you can see, electric powered vehicles are a growing share of the transportation market, and is creating confusion while the transition from ICE vehicles to Electric vehicles takes place.....

Are we ready for Electric Cars? Not Yet!

 

The above 3 pictures illustrate why America is far from ready for electric cars.  The owner of this Nissan Leaf had to string an extension cord from inside his corner apartment in Queens, NYC to a special charging cable, then use a protector for the cable as it crossed the sidewalk to finally reach the charging port in the car.  If the questionably legal space near the owner's apartment not been available, the owner would not have been able to charge this car, as there were no charging stations nearby.  In this community, electric cars are far from ready for prime time.

Why do I mention this today?

Lately, the big automakers are starting to push electric cars.  Yet, most of us are in charging station deserts. There is a big disconnect between reality and the hype.  Without a big change, we are going to get screwed big time by the changeover to electric vehicles.

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Do I support electrification of the transportation network?  Yes.  But we can't achieve this by 2035, as California and New York have mandated in law.  Our transportation needs alone are part of the problem, as we live in densely packed cities, sprawling suburbs, and distant rural areas.  Although frequent and convenient mass transit might solve the transportation problems in the cities, it does not solve the problem for the suburbs and rural areas.  To solve the needs of the suburbs, we would need upgrades to the electric grid, many thousands more charging stations, and quicker charging cars - to name a few things. And to solve the needs of the rural areas, we might need larger batteries with more storage than available now.  Yet, our driving habits would also need to change, as many Americans (like me) still are in love with the road trip.

The transition from horse and carriage to the fossil fueled vehicle did not happen overnight.  Nor was this a complete transition, as we have electric powered mass transit in many cities.  Like biological evolution, we will likely see "obsolete" structures continue in niches, such as the horse drawn carriages in Central Park. 

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Will we see the end of the gas powered car?  Probably not in our lifetime.  Many of us find it time and cost effective to drive our own cars for round trips under 300 miles, especially when driving between cities/suburbs and rural areas.  For example, for me to see my brother in another NYC suburban community, I can drive to his house much easier and quicker than I could get there via mass transit.  (Yes, it's much easier for me now, given that LIRR East Side Access is available.  But it doesn't deal with about a mile and a half of walking between my apartment and the bus, the bus and the MNRR train station, from Grand Central (MNRR) and Grand Central Madison (LIRR), and from my brother's LIRR train station and his house.)  Given that the further one lives from dense cities that mass transit becomes impractical, the more likely is is that one will need a car for medium to long distance trips.  And electric cars are not ready for this task, nor will they be ready in the next few years.

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So, where does this leave us?

Government is rushing ahead with unrealistic deadlines that can't be met. There is no urgent priority to make this transition, like the priority we had in secret for the Manhattan Project. The public is resisting, both with ethical behaviors (such as NOT buying electric cars) and unethical behaviors (such as blocking the few electric charging stations available for these cars).  But the message is clear - we are not yet ready for this transition, and won't be when the government has mandated it takes place.  

So, how can we change this?

We need something similar to a "Marshall Plan" to build up the electricity infrastructure to support the  future transportation needs of our society.  We need more energy, delivered over more power lines, and stored at more charging stations.  We need cars that can be fully charged in 5 minutes, that have a range of 300+ miles, and cost less than gas cars to own and run.  Without this, we will have a transportation nightmare within a decade.

I am not saying what we have to do as individuals.  But I am saying that we need to be skeptical of the promises made by big government and big business, as they do not yet reflect reality.