As I write this, Donald Trump is still the presumptive GOP nominee for the 2024 presidential election. By the time you read this, the US Supreme court will likely have ruled on Colorado's judgement that he participated in an insurrection against the government of the United States, and is ineligible to be on the state's GOP primary ballot. I support Colorado's court action, as the closest to the White House that Trump ever should be is as a protestor in Lafayette Park. Sadly, the violence his words provoke in the lunatics that support him has already started: The justices on Colorado's court are already getting death threats.
But what does this mean to the average transgender person?
The MAGA mob is like a large group of bovines being stampeded. They want to live in their ideal world: the America of the 1950's , a fantasy which would be a dystopia for us. The LGBT community would be persecuted, the black community would again suffer under Jim Crow (separate and unequal), and all other non-white and non-Christian peoples would be silenced. And even if this happened, things would get worse. Governments under strongman regimes eventually fail - and usually disastrous for the people who live under those regimes.
Political pundits are saying that the US Supreme Court should duck the issue and overrule the Colorado Supreme Court in the narrowest of ways, allowing Trump to be on the primary ballot and preserving the armistice between the MAGA mob and civilized Americans. I think this would be a big mistake, as the MAGA mob is intimidating the "sane" members of the GOP, forcing them to leave their party. Instead, the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) should take the issue head on and rule against Trump, saying that the 14th amendment is self effecting. If a state says that Trump is an insurrectionist, then he is ineligible to be on the ballot and ineligible to serve in any public office. This would give the non-MAGA GOP members cover to nominate people other than those from the MAGA mob to public office AND give the party a chance to be a national party again, instead of one that has support mostly in rural areas.
If SCOTUS were to rule in favor of the traditional GOP loyalists that brought this suit, I expect no less than a 5-4 ruling in favor of keeping Trump off the ballot. (I have my doubts on Justice Thomas and the 3 Trump nominated members.) I will be very surprised if it is a 9-0 ruling. The Colorado court's ruling was written in a way that justices Kavanaugh and Roberts would be hamstrung in trying to overturn their ruling.
However, I expect that SCOTUS will duck the issue and hope that they don't have to rule on this issue again. They may feel that given the political polarization we have today, that it may be wiser to let the people make their decision at the ballot box. But this would be the wrong decision to make, as the constitution prohibits Trump, and the ex-Confederate officers before him from holding office. If he wants relief, it may only be given by congress, where 33 &1/3% is elected to the Senate and 100% is elected to the House on election day. Since the new congress takes office before the president, they could rehabilitate Trump if elected, but unable to take office on January 20th. But then, MAGA people do not believe in elections that do not deliver the results they want....
