And now, for something different (or it should be)

 

A shortened version of a post I made in a different blog....

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The war with Iran has been going on for several months now, and what do we have gotten for it?  As I write this, we got 18 service members coming home in body bags, a depleted munitions stock, an aircraft carrier coming to port due to an under-supplied, emotionally exhausted crew, and hundreds of billions of dollars deeper in dept.  We did not get regime change in Iran.  We did not eliminate the potential nuclear threat Iran poses.  And we did not vanquish our "enemy".  Instead, we have shown that the US is a paper tiger, and that Iran has the power to shut off 20% of the world's oil supply.

If you ask our president, he'll say we're winning the war, and that the Strait of Hormuz is open for shipping.  Yet, he'll act like a little child when someone asks him a question which holds him to account for his mistakes.  His ego is so fragile, that by not admitting any of his failings, he is unable to learn from his mistakes.  As a result, he keeps doubling down on his lies, and no one trusts him anymore.  Yet, people are afraid of him due to his ability to rally members of his cult to attack his enemies.

America is now $40,000,000,000 in debt.  For the first time in history, we are now paying more in debt service than we pay for defense.  This can not last for long.  This president would cut social spending in order to preserve our war machine.  But what good would that do?  We can't even defeat an enemy like Iran.  Our military is not nimble.  We still act as if we need to fight the wars of the 20th century, instead of those we need to fight now.  Instead of retreating into 1940's military technology, as our president would do with our aircraft carriers, we should be at the forefront of 2020's military technology, as Ukraine has exhibited with its use of drone technology.

Unmanned vehicles (air, land, and sea) are the future of warfare, as they can enable militaries to fight wars while keeping their service members well behind the scenes in relative safety.  For those near the front lines of battle, they can provide the tools for defense that older, more expensive military tools and weapons can not provide.  Unmanned vehicles are cheaper and more effective than older military technology.  They have allowed Ukraine, a nation without a navy, to defeat the Russian navy and make it an almost useless asset.

Given the cost of proven drone technology vs. the cost of our overpriced military technology, I see a potential to kill several birds with one stone.  First, we can no longer afford to enforce a "Pax Americana" as we did for the second half of the 20th century.  So, let's wind it down to areas we can defend, and have other nations form healthy regional alliances for defense.  Second, let's take she savings from winding down the "Pax Americana" and do three things with it: (a) develop drone technology with Ukraine and build up stockpiles which both countries can use, (b) plug up holes in our social safety net (especially in healthcare, and (c) pay down our national debt.

The British empire fell because it couldn't afford to maintain it.  America is well on the same path to a similar national failure that could cripple us for generations.  And yet, our president's incompetency has given us an opportunity if we are wise enough to seize it.  Things are so FUBAR (F'd up beyond all recognition) that radical change may just be possible.  Licensing Ukrainian drone technology might help our military become more nimble and cost effective.  It may help America rebuild its industrial logistics, so that we can again build civilian products in the US, as we did with the aircraft and space industries.  We can learn from the past, and choose to take a different path than those who preceded us.

The big question is:  Will we learn the lessons of the past and make good choices.  I'm hoping that America will follow the lead of a wise woman (Mae West) who said: "Whenever given the choice between two evils, I'll choose the one I haven't chosen before."  It's time for something new, and even a bad choice of something new is better than the continued choices of something old we have been making as of late. 

We're about to enter another "Forever War" - and I'm Afraid!

 

We've been at war with Iran since February and we have nothing to show for it save 16 dead bodies so far. The Orange Monster (as usual) said that we must defeat this enemy without defining what an American victory looks like.  Like our mistaken involvement in Vietnam, the Monster is on track to sending in American soldiers to fight and die on foreign soil.  And, like Vietnam, America will have a hard time getting out of this war.

 

There is a totally incompetent man holding the office of US President.  He has no concept of any idea of how to end this war.  The Gulf nations who pay for America's troops to fight and die for their oil now demand that we keep fighting this war, as they know that Iran will become much too powerful if America pulls out of this war.  Like Vietnam, pulling out is politically impossible to the powers that be, because they are unable to admit defeat.

 

So, what is likely to happen?  Like Vietnam, America will continually escalate things, thinking that its obsolete war tactics and technology will be enough to defeat Iran.  And, like Vietnam, America will run the financial printing press to pay for this war, destroying the value of the US Dollar.  The UK had a similar problem after WW2, and found that it couldn't afford to be a colonial power any longer.  With America, the debasement of our currency will eventually end the era of our "Pax Americana" - we will no longer be able to maintain the "Peace" around the world that benefits everyone.  World commerce will suffer, and people around the world will suffer because the world order will not provide the stability and safety needed for people to prosper.

 

In eras of instability, our species has tended to make wars.  The US is at war with Iran.  Ukraine is at war with Russia.  Will China finally attack Taiwan?  I see this happening while America is distracted in Iran.  Assuming that this war starts in the next couple of years, what will happen to our computer chip supply?  We have a big problem with data center construction sucking up as many chips as TSMC (and others) can fabricate.  What will happen to our economy if we can't get the computing power we need to facilitate a modern economy?

 

Making war is similar to smoking cigarettes.  Before a nation starts a war, they can have millions of dollars worth of munitions that can be used, just like a smoker who has bought a few cartons to be smoked.  Once used, munitions are like cigarettes - totally worthless.  Both have done their damage, with little value to show for it.  Was may be necessary at times, but should be avoided save for the most extreme of reasons.  One may need to fight to resist bullies, as a nation may need to fight for its survival.  But it doesn't need to fight wars to feed its ego.  We don't need to prove that we're the biggest power in the global playground.  We need to prove we ready to fight when needed, but avoid fights we don't need to fight/

 

Right now, we're in a war we didn't need to fight.  The Orange Monster can not admit that he made a mistake, and that America has lost this war.  Until this happens, things will continue to get worse around the world.  Let's hope that things change soon....