If you don't think Trump is responsible for inflation....

 

If you don't believe that Trump's actions are causing inflation, look at the sale price of this dress.  Normally, it has been selling at Target for $50.99.  Today, it is listed for $76.49.  What has changed in the past week?  Not much.  But what has likely happened that Target's warehouses (or those of an intermediary who sells on Target's website) has just received a new shipment of these dresses, and has marked them to their current profitable price.

Let's assume that it is Trump's tariffs that account for the price hike.  Do we have a domestic industry large enough to maintain a price-competitive supply chain?  I doubt it.  Opening up our market to cheap Chinese goods 35 years ago destroyed much of American industry, its logistics and supply chain.  And we don't have what it takes to bring it back.  

Sadly, we never had a transition for those workers being displaced by cheap overseas labor.  Our capitalists acted as, if by magic, their consumers/workers would find other work so that they could afford to buy goods produced by cheaper labor.  For a while, this happened, as displaced labor was limited to a few rural towns.  But more and more people were affected over time, and both blue and white collar workers have been affected by these misguided policies.

No, I am not arguing against competition.  Instead, I am arguing against opening the doors to competition without a clear path for labor to have its needs taken care of.  European nations would never allow this to happen to its labor force, as they do not want social unrest and alienation.  They believe in a well educated people, with regular access to a relatively under biased news media still focusing on presenting objective truth to its consumers.

Trump has taken advantage of the 1st Amendment to the Constitution in ways our founding fathers couldn't conceive.  Political lies have been protected by the courts, and Trump has never been anywhere close to telling truth to his followers.  He lies, knowing that his cult will ingest anything he says.  In short, he is Orwell's "Big Brother" to his followers, and can do no wrong.  To the rest of us, he is an autocrat who has broken all social conventions, and has few checks and balances to stop him from destroying America.

So, why are tariffs so important?  In short, they are sales taxes on the economy.  They only serve to slow things down.Is this dress worth 50% more than it was a week ago?  No.  Could the price hike have been caused by the recent Iran war?  I doubt it.  There is no clothing industry of note in the Middle-East. But there is one in Southeast Asia and China. And their industries are being affected by Trump's tariffs and his war.

The prosperity of nations depend on constancy and predictability.  For generations, farmers knew that they'd plant crops in the spring, tend to them in the summer, and harvest them in the fall.  To increase yields, farmers have added fertilizer to their land for ages, much of it now being derived from Middle-East oil products.  Now, much of the fertilizer supplies we'd use are no longer available because of the war.  Many of the markets for American farm products no longer exist due to Trump's trade wars.  And yet, many in the rural states have yet to signal that they want this buffoon to be removed from office.  The infallibility of their cult leader overrides objective truth.  People are afraid of reality.

For those not part of Trump's cult, we see his cruelty destroying the friendships between America and its friends.  Canadians are largely avoiding the US, as well as tourists from many other nations.  Trump's Gestapo (read: ICE) rounds up people solely based on skin color and puts them into prison camps without due process.  Trump's CBP agents at our borders often harass travelers with proper documentation, and have put them into prisons as well.  Why should any nation want to be friends to America, much less help it in an illegal war?   Losing tourists from these nations is causing economic problems for many tourist areas in the US, and I don't see this happening soon.

This leaves us with a declining American workforce that has to suffer with increasing inflation.  It will take a generation or two to undo what Trump has damaged - it it can be undone at all.  If I were young, I'd have already left the US for countries which protect labor better than we do, inform and educate its people better than we do, and protect freedom better than we do.  But I am old, and stuck on America's roller-coaster.  For the rest of us, it will take come time for America to collapse.  And it is time for those with marketable skills to leave America.  Just be careful choosing where to go to.... 

 

World Affairs: Can the Orange Monster find a way to end his war?

  

I'm hoping that this needless war doesn't come to using weapons like the one above.  It is effective, but a weapon of last resort.  Sadly, the Orange Monster has gotten himself into a war with no way to get out.  If he wanted to cut and run, he'd have only made the current Iranian regime more extremist, and more of a danger to the world.  So, we're likely stuck fighting an army of at least 1,000,000 men if we decide to put our boots on the ground.

There are conflicting claims on both sides regarding negotiations.  Are there are aren't there any negotiations going on?  As much as I can't trust Iran's statements, I trust anything coming out of today's White House even less.  Anything the current administration says has been proven to be a lie, including the words "And" and "The". Given that Israel and the US started this war while negotiations were going on, Iran has no reason to believe that we will negotiate in good faith.

I expect that we will get stuck in a war that will last for months at best.  If we pull out now, Iran can and will continue to cause trouble for us and our allies in the Middle East. They will have many scores to settle, and they won't stop until those scores are settled.  So what options do we really have?  As I see it, not many.  We will need to crush both military and civilian resistance in Iran for years to come.  Our boots on the ground will likely be fighting a guerilla war for many months, as it's now in Iran's interest to cause as much trouble for the US as possible for as long as possible.  There will be many bodies coming back to America in Body Bags (oops, I mean "Human Remains Pouches"), coffins draped by flags, men and women dying in a war which could have been avoided.

America is being led by a senile, self-aggrandizing simpleton with ADHD who doesn't have the capacity or interest to being a wartime president.  He acts as if all he needs to do is post something in his money-losing social media platform, and things will happen by magic. Hopefully, this will be the quagmire that he can't escape, and that his base will finally see him for what he is - a grifter with no class in an office he is not qualified to hold. 

 

I prefer to see reality than live in a fantasy world

 

The other day, RQS sent me some links to various "meetup" sites whose purposes are simply to enable people to make new social connections.  A couple of these sites were geared for females to make social connections.  So, I asked RQS how passable I am, and she noted that there are some telltales that I am TG.  In short, I am not 100% passing, but that's OK for most purposes - just not for all.

It's hard for people to see reality these days, much be comfortable with reality.  We live in an age where the people we once could count on to tell us things resembling truthful opinions now tell us lies we want to hear.  We have a president who is a pathological liar, and who is totally disconnected from reality.  We are in a war that no one wanted, save for two people: Bibi Netanyahu and Donald Trump.  And now, Trump is telling lies which conflict with themselves:  "We have won the war with Iran." and "We need more money to win the war with Iran."  Where is our objective reality here?   Trump is the leader of an American cult which, unfortunately, has taken control of our government.  At a macro level, much of America is stuck living in a fantasy world.  But what about us as individuals?

As an individual living in a society which has become untethered from reality, I find it harder to maintain a solid connection to reality. First, I need to find objective information about myself and the world I live in.  As a TG, I need to know many things: How well do I present? What can I do to improve my presentation? Where can I travel safely in my preferred presentation? How do I keep informed of significant events that could affect me?    Second, I need to make reasonable decisions based on the information I gather.  In the case of travel, I have to be absolutely sure of how well I pass, as I could be committing a felony in some states.  (I was in one Southern state where I had to go to the loo and relieve myself while presenting as Marian.  Technically, I committed a felony just by needing to take a bio-break.  Luckily, no one cared where I was.)  Even worse, I can't visit many countries as Marian, as my assumed gender preference would be considered illegal and punishable under their laws.  (We're seeing that in some American states today.)  I have to be sensitive to the fact that we now have a federal government hostile to TGs and the rest of the LGBT community.  So, I am glad that I sent information to a nation where a grandparent came from, so that I have an exit route available in advance.

One TG individual I know has been corrupted by the media she consumes.  Although she has lost the desire to get her passport renewed in her identified gender due to Trump's executive order, she still refers to his political enemies by the childish names he uses for those people.  Yet, she can't identify why these people are bad.  She sees the word "Socialist" and identifies all evil to this word and those who identify with it.  Yet, she can't identify what is bad about the word itself.  Even though she's unhappy with the cult leader, she still identifies with the values of the cult - even when the cult would treat her like crap.  This transgender woman is not alone in her fantasy views of identity.  Another transgender woman I met belonged to a conservative religious denomination.  When she moved to upstate NY, she went to attend another church of that sect.  The pastor said that she shouldn't attend again because she was TG.  Her identity conflicted with what others saw that her identity should be,  We all can make similar mistakes.  This is why we need to always seek objective reality, instead of seeking to feel comfortable living within our fantasies.

Rule of Acquisition # 34: War is good for business.

 

A wise scriptwriter once wrote something like this: 

"Rule of Acquisition # 34: War is good for business"

"Aren't you confused? Rule of acquisition # 34 is: Peace is good for business."

"Yes, it's  easy to confuse the 2 rules."

Corollaries to this include: "War is good for business, but less so closer to the font lines you get."

- - - - - -

The "Special Military Operation (read: War) in Iran is proof of this.  Once America burns through its stockpile of arms, we will be placing orders to refresh our supplies - with kickbacks going to the Orange Snowflake and his family (of course).

Right now, I'm very glad that my nephew is long gone from the military, and has built up a nice civilian life.  Soon, this war will become very asymmetrical, and I expect to see terror attacks occur around the world.  (God, I hope I'm wrong about this.)  But when one side has outgunned the other, what other way can there be to inflict pain upon an enemy?

I believe strongly in the law of unintended consequences.  The orange snowflake keeps making errors which would force normal politicians out of office.  But, as the leader of a cult, he has the support of a lot of under educated Americans  who hold grievances against the society that has left them behind.  Closing the main business in a "One Horse Town" often results in unemployment and a town that can no longer provide needed services to its residents.  With no opportunities available, this class of people becomes economic surplus and not worth investing in.  These people become alienated from the larger society, and will follow any "leader" who promises this group a new prosperity and the restoration of their social class and its privileges.

Many Americans see the Iran war for what it is - a distraction from the Epstein Files.  With a submissive House and Senate, there is no effective check and balance on this demented megalomaniac. He only wants to be able to say "I AM the State!"  So far, he has had a good run towards his goal.  But this comes at a cost - he has destroyed all of America's soft power, as well as people's faith in a government that would work for the people.

Luckily, and I hate putting it this way, he will likely trigger a world-wide recession.  Americans will not be able to afford foreign goods, and America's role as the "Consumer of Last Resort" will have ended.  America will cease to be first among many democracies.  Instead, it will be a lesser power among the democracies of the world, as we will need to regain the trust of the world.  Yet, the entire world will have a large price to pay for the snowflake's aggression. People will starve because they can't afford food. Nations will need to build up their militaries because we no longer live in a rules-based world.  And freedoms will be curtailed because authoritarian regimes will have more power over people.  Does the end justify the means?  I don't think so.

- - - - - -

The current administration is floating the idea of resurrecting the draft.  If I were of draft age and had a useful skill, I'd visit a few foreign lands (Canada being one of them) and look to leave the US for these countries.  Being TG, I'd get as far away from the US as possible, as I fear that the snowflake will seriously consider annexing Canada before his term ends.  I hope that Canada takes this threat seriously, as the snowflake is following the 1930's German History map which includes Austrian Annexation.  (You may want to translate the page into English first.)  

Although part of my family background comes from the Caribbean, it is way too close for comfort.  Most of the Caribbean is inside America's "Mare Nostrum",  So I wouldn't feel safe there as a cisgender person, much less a TG.  All I can say is that I have my exit route planned, and am waiting on paperwork to make it easy to do so in a hurry.

- - - - - -

Last night, I was talking with my friend Vicki about current events, and she sees the danger we are now facing.  I mentioned the movie "Casablanca" and its cast, mostly made of European exiles forced out of their countries by the Nazis.  Right now, I expect to have my "Letters of Transit" soon, and I hope my readers in America are making similar plans. 

What happens when the highlight of the day is bed time?

 

As I write this, the US war against Iran is in its 3rd day.  Our president has made the major mistake of having peace talks while preparing to bomb a country.  America is about to get into another Vietnam, without any of the support it could have had if this were a just cause.  To make things worse, it feels like the war was started to cover up the Monster's presence in the Epstein Files. I wonder how many people will die because this madman wants to have a legacy that survives him

Why did I open with this?

Over the weekend, the most common thing in our YouTube feeds were talking heads and their discussions about the war.  It's hard to escape the insanity that is going on in the "Real World" when a madman's fancies are destroying everything America stood for.  I'm glad that my nephew is out of the military, as he'd be part of the cannon fodder the Monster is using to achieve his goals.

- - - - - -

Neither RQS nor I bothered getting dressed today.  It rained a little and the snow has melted a bit.  Soon, parking will be "easy" to find as before the snow storms hit.  Today was one of our relaxation days where we did nothing, save for having breakfast and dinner.  I shouldn't say we did absolutely nothing - RQS finished the reorganization of her storage shelves, and things are much easier for her to get at.

Part of me is looking forward to going home tomorrow.  My reasons are simple - I want to get back to work on my cruise cost calculation spreadsheet, and I can only work on it at home.  This has been a fun project for me, and something I will likely keep playing with as time progresses.  I already have some enhancements I'd like to work on that would make the spreadsheet much more useful.  But it will take some time to implement them.

My brother looks like he'll have a new job, and it looks like we have new tenants for the family homestead.  Although we will have money coming in, we will either need to reinvest it in the house, or let the next owner do so.  I'd have rather sold the property, but the timing of everything is fouling that plan up for now.  Assuming he has the new job, I'll get together with him for a last dinner before he moves out of town.  Yes, he'll be returning home to check on things now and then, but things won't be the same as before.  I'll likely get stuck managing the property - something I don't relish doing.

- - - - - -

At least, we caught up on our sleep for a change....  

A trip into the city for a play

 

No, we did not pass through Grand Central today.  But it would have been nice if we were able to do so.  Instead, our route brought us to a subway station I've never used before, as well as an area of the city I've never been to before on foot.

- - - - - -

When we woke up, neither of us had an idea of what we wanted to do.  So, RQS looked up the "Freebies" available on Club Free Time to find something cheap.  Settling on a play called "The Giggling Granny", we planned our day around our evening's entertainment.

RQS wanted to reorganize her kitchen a little, and have me help with fixing shelving that needed fixing.  (Its fourth corner was improperly supported, and could collapse with the right force used against it.)  So, we took everything out, and I inserted the support which leveled things out.  Now, RQS can reload the shelves at her own convenience.

What I haven't mentioned yet, is that the Orange Monster started an illegal war today against Iran.  Yes, it is a desperate attempt to distract people from the Epstein Files, but it poses great risk to the USA and to the world.  Both RQS and I are appalled - even though the Iranian government deserves to be destroyed.  Yet, it shows something else - the Orange Monster never negotiates in good faith.  The Iranians believed that they were close to an agreement.  (Too bad for them that they never read Ambrose Bierce and his Devil's Dictionary.  They'd see that Peace is only a period of treachery between two wars.) 

With all of this in mind, we both got dressed and went into NYC.  Sadly, I was semi conscious during the play, and missed most of it.  On the way back to the subway station, we stopped for gelato.  And then we passed by two one-dish restaurants - one selling pasta, and the other selling Mac & Cheese.  Both of these are places I want to try some time in the future.

Soon, we were on the train back home, and back in the apartment for SNL's cold open.  One could tell that they had to rewrite everything to account for the big news of the day, and they referenced themselves in the skit.  Once Weekend Update (the Real Fake News) was over, we turned off the TV and went to bed for the night.