Comparing prices on long and short cruises.

On a solo cruise I took last year, I found out about this cruise from a woman who planned to take it in 2020.  However, her mother needed eye surgery.  And in Canada, you take the dates you can get for non-essential surgery.  This means that she won't be on this cruise. But I may still go on it.

When I first ran the numbers this summer, I figured that I should budget at least $4,000 for the trip, broken down as follows:

• Base Fare          - $2298 (includes $1149 single supplement)
• Port Fees/Taxes -     543
• Gratuities           -     315
  ---------------------------------
  Simple Cruise    - $3360
   
• Trip to NYC Pier -       60
•  from Seattle Pier -     40
  ---------------------------------
  Simple land cost  -    100
• Airfare (SEA-JFK) -   250
• Trip JFK to Home    -  60
  ---------------------------------
  Minimum Cost    - $3870

Of course, things aren't always what they seem.  I decided to see what the current price for the cruise was listed for on vacationstogo.com, and saw that the cost for an inside cabin had dropped by $200.  This means that I'd still be close to $3,800 for the cruise without any excursions.  That wasn't good enough for me.  So, in late October, I checked ncl.com for the same cruise and got the following results:

• Studio Cabin: from $2,099
• Inside Cabin:  from $1,198
• Oceanview:    from $2,099
• Balcony:         from $2,399
• Mini-Suite:      from $2,849

You'll notice that having an inside cabin costs less than having a studio cabin.  There is more room in the inside cabin, but it does not have access to the studio cabin's lounge area. But the $1,000 difference in price from the time I started tracking this cruise and now is making me reconsider taking this cruise.  My net daily expense (excluding land/air transit) would drop from $160/day to $100/day.  My net minimum cost has dropped to under $3,000. This looks like a great bargain in the making.

Towards the end of July, I noted in my old blog that NCL practices yield management. This means that one can and will see pricing anomalies throughout the sales life of the cruise. Once within 90 days of the cruise, most of the people who have planned to go on the cruise have already made their bookings for the cruise.  And this is the period where price/value calculations start to create anomalies more exaggerated than the $900 difference between the studio cabin and the inside cabin above.  This is also the period where I start seriously tracking prices for cruises I want to take, so that I can pounce on a rare great deal.

Not all great deals are a result of complex yield management. Within the last month before the cruise, some lines (such as Princess) offer last minute specials.  I logged into princess.com priced a last minute 15 day Hawaii cruise (including air) from San Francisco leaving the first weekend in November, and got inside cabin price of $922/per person. 

• Base Fare          - $1844 (includes $922 single supplement)
• Port Fees/Taxes -     241
• Gratuities           -     225
  ----------------------------------
  Simple Cruise --  - $2310

Of course, airfare might have to be bought through the cruise line, as last minute airfares can be very expensive otherwise.  I expect that the Hawaii cruise would likely set me back close to $3,500, as I would want to take the shore excursions I wouldn't bother taking on the Panama Canal run. Considering that Princess can not offer 7 day Hawaii cruises that only NCL can offer, I'd bet that Princess will offer similar last minute deals on their Hawaii runs as the sale time for each cruise starts to run out.  So, if I want to do a Hawaii run, I may hold off until it is close to embarkation day and take advantage of any last minute discounts that may be offered.

Compare the NCL 7 day Hawaii cruise above to the Princess 15 day cruise mentioned earlier.  The NCL cruise overnights in Kauai (Nawiliwili) and Maui (Kahului), while the Princess cruise daylights these ports. The extra time in port gives the cruiser much more time to enjoy the two islands.  The minor (to me) drawback of taking the NCL cruise is that there is no gambling on the cruise, as gambling is illegal in Hawaii.  But the most important difference between the two cruise line's ships is that NCL sails with an American flagged ship, while Princess sails with a "flag of convenience."  This forces Princess to make a stop in a foreign port at least once per cruise. Thus, Princess must offer 15 day cruises with a single stop in Ensenada (Mexico) if it wants to service the Hawaii cruise market.

The difference between what NCL can offer for a last minute Hawaii cruise vs. what Princess can offer for a similar cruise becomes very interesting when I look at NCL's price for a Thanksgiving time cruise.  For the November 23, 2019 cruise, I got the following results:

• Inside Cabin:  from    $899
• Oceanview:    from    $929
• Balcony:         from $1,299
• Mini-Suite:     from $5,598 (includes 100% single supplement)

Let's factor in roughly $700 for airfare, $250 for port fees, $100 for land transit, $105 for gratuities, and another $600 for shore excursions, and my total expenses for a 7 day cruise would be in the $2,700 range for an Oceanview cabin. Since NCL offers this cruise on a weekly basis, I'd bet that deals like this may show up relatively often.

You'll note that I've focused on cruises that sail within the next 6 months which stop in United States and Canadian ports. Being transgender, I need to feel safe in those few ports that I go on shore - especially while traveling with an ID showing a male presentation but presenting as a female. The Panama Canal and Hawaii cruises are (for most people) "once in a lifetime" trips, and I want to take both before I get too old to travel.