Cruise prices don't always make sense.

 

Just for fun, I decided to price out a repositioning cruise on NCL to start in a month from the time this entry is made public. Although I have no interest in taking this particular cruise, it illustrates the irrationality of some prices available to the potential cruiser.

You'll note that all prices are for solo cruisers.  I have sailed (or will have sailed) in every category save for the Studio, the Spa, and the Haven.  If pricing for this cruise was completely rational, the Studio cabin wouldn't be priced as high as it is.  From what I can tell, it is a smaller version of an inside cabin with access to a "Studio Only" travel area.  (Singles can mix here.)  So, why is it priced more than the Inside cabin, the Oceanview cabin, and a Balcony cabin.  It costs almost as much as the Club Balcony Suite.  If I were taking this particular cruise, I'd spend the extra $124 and get almost 3 times the room to spread out AND have a balcony of my own.

Once one decides to go above the Club Balcony Suite level, prices start going into the stratosphere.  I can only imagine how much money I'd want in my bank account before I'd even consider a room in the Haven.  (When a suite there has more room than my apartment, the Haven is geared to people who have lots of money to burn.)  I've met people who have cruised in both the Spa and the Haven suites, and they loved them. For me, I'll wait for the excuse to take a very special trip and then drop the coin to make it special for me and a potential partner.

With certain exceptions, you usually get what you pay for.  Sometimes you get more.  And sometimes, you get less.   Before the pandemic struck, I found a Repositioning / Panama Canal cruise that I could have taken for $1000 - 21 days, New York to Seattle. Unfortunately, that cruise had to be cancelled on account of the pandemic. Later in the year, there was a 11 day Hawaii Cruise Tour (effectively 10 days of activities) that I could have taken for half the price the same package sells for today.  This, too, was cancelled because of the pandemic.  An ex girlfriend of many years ago was very sad about this, as she was looking to take this cruise with 3 of her girlfriends.  (I could only imagine what would have happened if we bumped into each other on the cruise.)

- - - - - -

I have been tracking the price of another cruise I've been interested in as it gets closer to sail date.  If I'm right, the price will drop another $50/stateroom class one or two more times before the ship sails.  However, I wouldn't want to risk losing this deal at this point - so I'll be buying my tickets soon....

 

 

Lately, I've been falling behind with my posts.

 

 

No, the winter hasn't been getting in the way of things.  It's been the pandemic.  When one has nothing to do all day, it's easy to do nothing.  In many ways, it feels like the snow has locked all of us inside for the winter, save for the fact that there is no snow on the ground.

- - - - - -

It's been a long while since I've been to Provincetown. And I'd love to have the legitimate reason to be there on a day like this, when I could see one of my favorite places filled only with locals.  No, I don't want to get stuck there in bad weather.  Instead, I simply want to see the town as only locals see it - without any of the tourists around.

There are so many places I'd like to visit without tourists.  If I were an Italian, I might be able to see Venice without the tourist invasions which befoul the city. Supposedly, due to the pandemic reducing commercial activities, the waters in that city are becoming cleaner and less reminiscent of a cesspool.  In the United States, however, the pandemic has made it impossible to travel to some places on my bucket list.  For example, I was considering taking a repositioning cruise from New York City to Seattle via the Panama Canal.  The early days of the pandemic made that impossible.  Next, I was considering taking a Hawaii cruise/tour this past December.  Again, the pandemic squelched that idea.  Now, the same cruise/tour costs over 50% more, as the cruise line is now restricting projected capacity on these vacations.

If I stay healthy and am able to afford it, I will still take similar vacations sometime in the future.  Until then, I expect the days to blur together, forcing me to catch up on my posting when I get around to it. 

I keep on checking out prices on the 15 day Hawaii cruise

Sometimes, prices go up when planning a cruise.  When I first started tracking the price of a 15 day Hawaii cruise out of San Francisco, princess.com supplied the following price for an inside cabin on cruise leaving in early November: 

• Base Fare          -  $1844 (includes $922 single supplement)
• Port Fees/Taxes -      241 
• Gratuities           -      225
  ----------------------------------
  Simple Cruise      - $2310

In the middle of November, the same site quoted me the following for a similar cruise leaving on January 27th:

• Base Fare          - $2180 (includes $1090 single supplement)
• Port Fees/Taxes -     241 
• Gratuities           -     225
  ---------------------------------
  Simple Cruise    - $2646 (an increase of $336)

For fun, I decided to examine prices that Princess could get for flights bringing me into San Francisco the night before the cruise, and leave late in the day that the cruise returns to port.  (I'd take an earlier flight if I couldn't connect with a friend during the day.  That would have to be arranged before the cruise.)

• Base R/T Airfare     - $300 (prices varied a great deal)
• Checked Luggage   -     60 
• Transit to LGA         -     50
• Transit from SFO    -      50
• Hotel in SF              -    200
• Transit from Hotel    -     20
• Transit to SFO         -     50
• Transit from LGA     -     50
  ------------------------------------
  Subtotal                  -   $780
  Simple Cruise        - $2646 (an increase of $336)
  ------------------------------------
  Base Total              - $3426 (before excursions)

By the time I'm done, I expect that this would be a $5,000 cruise. I'm not sure if I would want to spend this much when unemployed.  The Panama Canal cruise that I started monitoring a while back, again starts looking like the best of bargains.

When I first ran the numbers this summer, I figured that I should budget at least $4,000 for the trip.  Since then, the overall price has changed for this cruise and my expenses are listed below:

• Base Fare             -  $1698 (miraculously, no single supplement)
• Port Fees/Taxes     -     543
• Gratuities                -     315
  -------------------------------------
  Simple Cruise         - $2556
   
• Trip to NYC Pier       -     60
•  from Seattle Pier     -     40
  -------------------------------------
  Simple land cost      -    100
• Airfare (SEA-JFK)      - 250
• Trip JFK to Home        -  60
  -------------------------------------
  Minimum Cost        - $3066

Which trip would you choose?

Comparing prices on long and short cruises.

On a solo cruise I took last year, I found out about this cruise from a woman who planned to take it in 2020.  However, her mother needed eye surgery.  And in Canada, you take the dates you can get for non-essential surgery.  This means that she won't be on this cruise. But I may still go on it.

When I first ran the numbers this summer, I figured that I should budget at least $4,000 for the trip, broken down as follows:

• Base Fare          - $2298 (includes $1149 single supplement)
• Port Fees/Taxes -     543
• Gratuities           -     315
  ---------------------------------
  Simple Cruise    - $3360
   
• Trip to NYC Pier -       60
•  from Seattle Pier -     40
  ---------------------------------
  Simple land cost  -    100
• Airfare (SEA-JFK) -   250
• Trip JFK to Home    -  60
  ---------------------------------
  Minimum Cost    - $3870

Of course, things aren't always what they seem.  I decided to see what the current price for the cruise was listed for on vacationstogo.com, and saw that the cost for an inside cabin had dropped by $200.  This means that I'd still be close to $3,800 for the cruise without any excursions.  That wasn't good enough for me.  So, in late October, I checked ncl.com for the same cruise and got the following results:

• Studio Cabin: from $2,099
• Inside Cabin:  from $1,198
• Oceanview:    from $2,099
• Balcony:         from $2,399
• Mini-Suite:      from $2,849

You'll notice that having an inside cabin costs less than having a studio cabin.  There is more room in the inside cabin, but it does not have access to the studio cabin's lounge area. But the $1,000 difference in price from the time I started tracking this cruise and now is making me reconsider taking this cruise.  My net daily expense (excluding land/air transit) would drop from $160/day to $100/day.  My net minimum cost has dropped to under $3,000. This looks like a great bargain in the making.

Towards the end of July, I noted in my old blog that NCL practices yield management. This means that one can and will see pricing anomalies throughout the sales life of the cruise. Once within 90 days of the cruise, most of the people who have planned to go on the cruise have already made their bookings for the cruise.  And this is the period where price/value calculations start to create anomalies more exaggerated than the $900 difference between the studio cabin and the inside cabin above.  This is also the period where I start seriously tracking prices for cruises I want to take, so that I can pounce on a rare great deal.

Not all great deals are a result of complex yield management. Within the last month before the cruise, some lines (such as Princess) offer last minute specials.  I logged into princess.com priced a last minute 15 day Hawaii cruise (including air) from San Francisco leaving the first weekend in November, and got inside cabin price of $922/per person. 

• Base Fare          - $1844 (includes $922 single supplement)
• Port Fees/Taxes -     241
• Gratuities           -     225
  ----------------------------------
  Simple Cruise --  - $2310

Of course, airfare might have to be bought through the cruise line, as last minute airfares can be very expensive otherwise.  I expect that the Hawaii cruise would likely set me back close to $3,500, as I would want to take the shore excursions I wouldn't bother taking on the Panama Canal run. Considering that Princess can not offer 7 day Hawaii cruises that only NCL can offer, I'd bet that Princess will offer similar last minute deals on their Hawaii runs as the sale time for each cruise starts to run out.  So, if I want to do a Hawaii run, I may hold off until it is close to embarkation day and take advantage of any last minute discounts that may be offered.

Compare the NCL 7 day Hawaii cruise above to the Princess 15 day cruise mentioned earlier.  The NCL cruise overnights in Kauai (Nawiliwili) and Maui (Kahului), while the Princess cruise daylights these ports. The extra time in port gives the cruiser much more time to enjoy the two islands.  The minor (to me) drawback of taking the NCL cruise is that there is no gambling on the cruise, as gambling is illegal in Hawaii.  But the most important difference between the two cruise line's ships is that NCL sails with an American flagged ship, while Princess sails with a "flag of convenience."  This forces Princess to make a stop in a foreign port at least once per cruise. Thus, Princess must offer 15 day cruises with a single stop in Ensenada (Mexico) if it wants to service the Hawaii cruise market.

The difference between what NCL can offer for a last minute Hawaii cruise vs. what Princess can offer for a similar cruise becomes very interesting when I look at NCL's price for a Thanksgiving time cruise.  For the November 23, 2019 cruise, I got the following results:

• Inside Cabin:  from    $899
• Oceanview:    from    $929
• Balcony:         from $1,299
• Mini-Suite:     from $5,598 (includes 100% single supplement)

Let's factor in roughly $700 for airfare, $250 for port fees, $100 for land transit, $105 for gratuities, and another $600 for shore excursions, and my total expenses for a 7 day cruise would be in the $2,700 range for an Oceanview cabin. Since NCL offers this cruise on a weekly basis, I'd bet that deals like this may show up relatively often.

You'll note that I've focused on cruises that sail within the next 6 months which stop in United States and Canadian ports. Being transgender, I need to feel safe in those few ports that I go on shore - especially while traveling with an ID showing a male presentation but presenting as a female. The Panama Canal and Hawaii cruises are (for most people) "once in a lifetime" trips, and I want to take both before I get too old to travel.

I'm thinking about a Panama Canal Cruise, but can I afford it?

I have been salivating, considering breaking open my 401k a little to take this cruise.  If my balance breaks a certain level and stays there for a while, I may just withdraw enough cash to pay for this cruise (and the taxes on the withdrawal itself) to take this once in a lifetime cruise.

- - - - - -

So far, the people in my life are encouraging me to take this cruise.  I'd be away from home over 3 weeks, as I'd want to do some sightseeing in Seattle before going home.  Doing incomplete research (JetBlue prices for the return trip aren't posted yet), I figure that I should budget at least $4,000 for the trip, broken down as follows:

• Base Fare          - $2298 (includes $1149 single supplement)
• Port Fees/Taxes -     543
• Gratuities           -     315
  -----------------------------
  Simple Cruise    - $3360
   
• Trip to NYC Pier -     60
•  from Seattle Pier -     40
  ------------------------------
  Simple land cost  -    100
• Airfare (SEA-JFK) - 250
• Trip JFK to Home   -  60
  ------------------------------
  Minimum Cost    - $3870

Of course, this cruise will cost more than that.  Add on a few shore excursions, a day or two in Seattle, souvenirs, and miscellaneous onboard expenses (such as drinks and laundry), and one will likely hit the $4500 price point for the trip.

If I don't take this trip next year, there may be another cruise I could go on.  A similar cruise to this one would have left NYC in January 2020, and deposited me in San Francisco.  This cruise was discounted last year, and it would cost me only $100 less than the cruise taking me to Seattle.

Ideally, the person who told me about this cruise would be on it.  However, she will be with her parents, as her mom is scheduled to have an eye operation then. (In Canada, they ration healthcare by forcing people to wait for non-essential healthcare procedures.  We ration healthcare by use of an irrational pricing and insurance structure.)  So she will not be able to take this cruise with her parents until 2021. 

Another consideration for this cruise is that it would be criminal of me to take this cruise, disembark in Seattle, and NOT see my nephew.  This means that I'd need to take one male outfit with me, so that I could see him shortly after I arrive.  (But where would I change clothes and remove my makeup and wig?)  Luckily, I'd be seeing him in less than 2 weeks, as my niece will be married in NYC towards the end of May.

- - - - - -

If I do take this cruise, I will need to hold my mail for almost a month and pay virtually all my bills in advance.  Can I afford this kind of hit to my pocketbook?  I'm not sure.  One expense that would go way down is food - I'd be able to skip buying anything to eat for almost a month.  There would be no Mickey D's, no diners, and no special dinners with friends. If I average $30/day on these expenses, I'd save about $210.  <mumbling "Big fat hairy deal."> So, my costs still remain in the $4000 - $4500 range.

Do I really want to take this trip?   Or, do I find a way to do a Hawaii cruise instead?




Note: As of 11/20/19, the price for the cruise has dropped $100/pp - a $200 savings for me.