I've decided to hold off on buying a car for now.

 

As much as I want a new car, I don't want to over pay for it.  Even though there is a shortage of cars, there is no excuse to charge $3000 over MSRP on an entry level car.  Dealers may get the sale now, but will not get the next sale after the supply chain returns to a new normal.

Over the past few weeks, I've visited dealerships and have been told that they will not make deals without charging extra for the car.  If a dealership indicates that it has wiggle room in making a deal, it's not enough room to get me to bite.  If a dealership claims to be willing to sell a car at MSRP, I've found that the dealership will throw on a BS line item to get that extra profit.  Finally, due to a lack of inventory, dealerships will sell used cars for the price of a new car.

Things will return to normal.  How soon, no one knows.  But if one can afford to wait for a new car, it pays to do so.  There are mixed opinions on whether a healthy normal will return, due to a long term shortage of computer chips.  But I feel that the industry will figure out a way to build new supply chains to maximize potential sales.  And if I'm right, things should start to ease up in the next few months.  This is worth waiting for....

I'm a little concerned about supply chain issues getting worse.

 

Several months ago, I mentioned that it took forever for me to get this replacement head unit for my air conditioner. Supply chain issues prevented it from being manufactured and delivered in a timely manner. Today, I watched a video that makes me think that this incident may just be the tip of an iceberg...

One of the things I've noticed when I went to the beach with FH last years was the presence of cargo ships sitting outside New York harbor.  They had yet to cross under the Verrazzano Narrows Bridge and enter the Ports of NY/NJ for unloading. Today's video came from someone who seemed to be a survivalist by nature, but had a valuable insight to what's happening on the West Coast.  His most salient point in the video had nothing directly to do with the problems with world shipping.  Instead, it had to do with the Russia-Ukraine war.  Even though Russia is not well integrated into the Western economies, we lose a lot by cutting off trade with Russia, and he focused on their fish and fertilizer exports.  He also noted that Ukraine being a bread basket for the world.  Couple these factors with supply chain issues at major ports, and we likely will soon see major food shortages - even in the USA.

I feel that we will have to learn how to live with sudden short term periods of scarcity as supply chain issues work themselves out.  Smart people will need to learn how to maintain inventories of things they need, so that they have reserves for when selective items are temporarily scarce and hard to find. Strangely enough, this will pump up our economy while making things worse.  America has always been a land of plenty, and this period of temporary shortages will be a hard thing for Americans to get used to. It will likely cause major social disruption, as our culture defines America as THE land of plenty (for a price) when we're not in the middle of a world war.

You may ask, what does this have to do about being transgender?  The answer is simple.  When times get bad, people become more conservative and prone to populist insurrections.  January 6, 2001 was just the start of a problem for us transgender people, as people in "Red States" now feel free to enact laws regarding what we can and can't do with our bodies (think of abortion laws and transgender participation in sporting events).  As things get worse for the general population, politicians will make minorities like us sacrificial lambs to deflect attention from the fact that they aren't getting anything done to solve the problems average people face.

I can still remember the name calling that FCP did after the unfortunate dissolution of our friendship. In many ways, it showed the true nature of what she felt inside about me.  (Just drop the words of anger, and focus on internal definitions...)  We will see a lot of that in our friends as things get hard for them.  They will be saying that there are more important things to worry about than gender identity, expression, and preference.  And from their perspective, they may be right.  But from our perspectives, it reaches deep into our identities of self - and this could be a live or die issue for many.  I am lucky NOT to have severe gender dysphoria.  But what about those who do?  Can they live, much less, prosper in stealth mode?  I don't know.

As the fictional Margo Channing once said: "Fasten your seatbelts; it's going to be a bumpy night." I'd change that to say it's going to be a bumpy year or two at best....

I am getting tired of all of this.

 

Who'd have thought 2 years ago that we'd still be feeling the effects of the pandemic on society?  Over the past few months, most of us have been living "normal" lives.  Yet, there have been sporadic shortages which have affected our lives in ways we'd have never expected - such as the lack of computer chips creating a shortage of cars on dealer lots.  Although most people I work with don't fear catching the virus (we're all vaccinated, and the Omicron wave hasn't been as painful as expected), we still cringe if we see people who aren't wearing masks.

In 2020, I felt energized to go to work as Marian.  This year, it's normal - but the work exhausts me.  I still enjoy wearing a dress, and I'm much more comfortable wearing women's trouser like garments than I was in the past.  Yet, I'm likely going to call it an end of a career soon, as I'm simply tired of feeling tired most of the time.  I'll likely be in trousers more often, as I have reasons to spend more time as Mario these days.

Does this mean I'll be giving up my dresses?  Absolutely not!  It means that I again have a life that calls for the presence of Mario.  I have not changed.  My circumstances have changed.  And this will mean that my scheduling of Marian and Mario time will get more complicated, as I will be doing more switching back and forth between the genders, as I did years ago.

So what am I tired of?  It's not of being Marian.  I'm much more comfortable as Marian than I am as Mario.  But that doesn't mean I'm uncomfortable as Mario.  I'm simply tired of all the other energy sucking factors in my life that make it hard to enjoy the place in life I've worked hard to achieve.

I never thought I'd be feeling this way many years ago.  Is this what being old is all about?

Backorder, Backorder, Backorder...

 

I figured that I'd post something pretty instead of another meaningless caricature of myself.  Instead I figured that my readers would like to see a work of Chihuly glass. 

And now, to today's post....

Over the past year, I've found that there are a lot of problems with keeping goods available when needed and/or desired. Most of these problems are related to logistics issues triggered by the pandemic.  For example, the control units for my air conditioners were likely delayed, as parts they needed had to come from Asia, where people were kept from working due to Covid-19 infections..  Clothing I've ordered has taken longer than usual to be delivered, as warehouses did not have enough workers to process incoming orders.  And now, makeup I've ordered has been back-ordered, as the company I usually buy from didn't have enough units in stock to fill my order.  Thankfully, I try to maintain an adequate inventory at home, so that I can withstand disruptions like those I've been experiencing.

Last week, I ordered 4 units of beard cover, and 4 units of contouring makeup.  Unfortunately,3 units of the contouring makeup is back-ordered and should be delivered at some future date.  I'm hoping that I receive this makeup before I go on vacation.  If not, I'll have to ask my next door neighbor to intercept the package if delivered while I'm away.

- - - - - -

Things could be much worse for me.  I could need to buy a car.  Right now, prices are 10%-20% above MSRP for most cars.  I don't want to justify that price unless I need to do so.  Why are prices this high? Almost ALL of the major carmakers decided to overly rely on "Just In Time" (JIT) supply chains.  They made the big mistake of not having enough inventory of key items to get them through a supply chain disruption.

As much as we're seeing prices spike right now,I expect this will be a short term issue.  Supply will eventually catch up with demand, and prices will become rational again.  Until that date, expect to spend more for fewer available essential goods - including makeup!

 

It's been two years...

 

Years ago, Ex-GF-M had a thing for Starbucks Coffee.  Her late husband worked for the firm, and finally had a career that he could excel in.  Sadly for her, he passed away a couple of years before we met, and she was still dealing with her loss at that time.  I broke up with Ex-GF-M because she was a bad influence on me.  It was the toxic effect of an addictive triangle (2 people and a substance - in this case, food) that took a negative effect on me.  When I met XGFJ, I thought she'd be the one.  But it didn't work out.  I lost my former cruise partner as a friend around the same time.  That loss was my fault, and due to gross stupidity.  However, I think she hurts more than I do based on a text she sent me at the end of September.  Too bad that the one person she could once turn to in time of need is the one person she can't turn to now.

- - - - - -

But enough of talking about that part of the past.  Many things have changed, and it is very interesting to look at the past and present to see where things are headed.

For 4 years, America had to suffer with a grifter as head of state.  (I didn't "drink the Kool-Aid" as many "Conservatives" had done.)  His rabid support frightened many people then, and still bothers people today.  There was a collective disbelief that someone they believed to be successful and a great businessman was simply a con artist behind a green curtain. But many people in New York, Atlantic City, and other places where he placed his flag knew him for his questionable business practices and not for traditional measurements of business success.  It seemed like every day a new scandal was erupting, and things got progressively worse.  Relief came when he lost the 2000 election, only because he mishandled the pandemic, causing the economy to crater.

The pandemic started off as if it was a problem local to China.  Little did anyone know how much trouble this virus would cause the world.  I can still remember a meetup group acting as if the virus wasn't dangerous when America started being aware of how many people were starting to get ill and die. Within a week, not only did this group stop meeting, but most businesses shut down for in-person work.  If you could work from home, you did.  Even now, 19 months later, most businesses are not requiring their offices to be fully staffed.  After 19 months, many of us are wearing masks to help prevent disease transmission.  With vaccinations (which people lined up for 6 months ago), many people are assuming that they are safe and catching the virus.  Luckily, most of the vaccinated only experience very mild symptoms.  However, there are selfish fools who remain unvaccinated, and this is causing our hospitals to be flooded with Covid patients.  Now, it looks like Covid will be around forever, but will be managed (for most of us) with regular booster shots.

Due to the pandemic, last year's baseball season was shortened to 60 games, with few people allowed to attend the games.  (Attendance was permitted for the people on the field, the TV crews, and security guards.)  At the beginning of this season, some cities were restricting attendance to a socially distanced few, gradually allowing more and more people to attend as long as they could show proof of vaccination.  Yet, there are some athletes who still want to remain unvaccinated, and are prohibited from working out or playing with their teams in their home cities.

In the period since the pandemic started, we have suffered a series of supply chain issues which are causing prices for many goods to go up.  Last year, with poor demand for automobiles, my brother was able to snag a late model car from a car rental agency for 25% less than the same car would sell for today.  Recently, a coworker flew to Hawaii on vacation, and found out that the normal car rental places had nothing to rent - a year ago, they had sold off their inventory to pay their bills.  Now, the rental car companies can't buy enough cars to refurnish their fleets, as the car manufacturers can not get the computer chips needed to build their cars.  (This is yet another pandemic related supply chain issue....)

Before the pandemic, I used to go on a cruise one or twice each year.  Last year, the tourist industry had to slam on the brakes and shut everything down in a two week period.  People were stranded overseas waiting to be repatriated to their home countries.  With one cruise ship, our former president decided to keep it from docking at its port of origin, so that he could keep our Covid infection numbers low.  Eventually, reality set in, and this ship made it to a nearby port.  Yet, many people had stranger journeys to make it home from overseas.  MWL recounted that the pandemic hit in the middle of an overseas trip, and that returning home was a confusing mess.  

Once the tourist doors were slammed shut, only a limited few people were allowed to make their way across borders.  For example, there were Canadian doctors and nurses who worked in the USA - they were allowed to cross.  But there were other essential people crossing the border, such as truck drivers making deliveries across borders, and Americans doing a land transit through Canada to reach Alaska.  The loss of the tourist trade hurt people on both sides of the border, Alaska and Canada's Maritime Provinces lost out on over a year's worth of tourist money - and the affected people will likely be affected for years.

However, things are returning to a new normal.  The US has allowed foreign flagged ships to sail to Alaska from Seattle, so that Alaska doesn't lose two years of tourist business.  Long delayed movies are finally making it to theaters.  I just saw the new James Bond flick, and can't wait to see the new Ghostbusters flick when it comes out.  I've started going out as Marian much more often, and feel comfortable traveling in both presentations.  I guess it's because I've been able to live much of my life as Marian over the past 19 months, and have a better idea of how much Marian (and Mario) means to me....

Another visit to Mavis, more frustration, followed by dinner with someone new.

This is the last part which needs to get installed for my car's exhaust system to be complete.  However, when I arrived at Mavis bright and early this morning, they didn't have the part.  If the car wasn't driveable, I would be very mad.  As it is, I am quite upset.  No, I am not upset at the people at Mavis, as they are upset as well.  I am upset at a supply chain which has failed at a critical moment for me.

I am told that Covid-19 has affected a lot of supply chains around the world.  Couple this with the recent supply chain problem caused by a container ship blocking the Suez Canal, and one can start building a case for regionalization in addition to globalization.  When the pandemic first hit, no one knew how much of our medical supply chain was sourced from China.  I am not at odds with David Ricardo who suggested that there is mutual national benefit from trade even if one country is more competitive in every area than its trading counterpart and that a nation should concentrate resources only in industries where it has a comparative advantage. However, it also makes sense for regions to be moderately self sufficient during a pandemic.  Yet, one can go way too far with this idea, such as with North Korea's idea of Juche. A nation (or region) must find a happy medium, so that when many international borders have to be shut down, enough commerce can take place, in order to minimize the disruptions that result from closed borders and broken supply chains.

In my case, a minor supply chain breakdown is interfering with a visit to see FH at her friend's place.  The part never made it to Mavis at 9:00 as promised.  It arrived 4 hours late. As a result, the repair could not be completed early enough to allow me to make it to FH's friend on time.  And when I started to leave for Long Island to meet up with FH for an early dinner, she texted me to say that she was tired and that we should wait until next weekend to get together.  At that point, I started on a long drive, and decided to call FCM to say hello.  This hello ended up allowing us to get together for dinner, and chatting well into the evening.  Even though there are some warning signs, I feel good enough about FCM to consider a second get together.

 

PS: The next day FCM sent me a message that makes me feel we will stay in the "Friend Zone."  And that's OK with me, as she was a low priority dating prospect.